0 Extreme events: Our rising risk

To many environmentalists, the slipping of Indonesia in the 2012 Global Risk Index by three places, announced this week, has come as no surprise given the wanton disregard for the land, rivers and seas that we witness by just opening our eyes. The Global Risk Index 2012 covers the period 1991 to 2010 and takes real data to analyze what has happened and where. It uses this to detail an occurrence map and to highlight trends. The index also takes into account current events in terms of deforestation, reef destruction and mangrove depletion, for example to predict how severe the impact of changing weather patterns and rising sea levels will be.

With global satellite mapping now available, the destructive information no longer relies on self-interest-based government statistics. It is quite revealing. From the index, the nations most at risk are mostly developing nations; but, as we saw with Hurricane Katrina in 2005, climate change and the growing severity of events pose global risks to life and property. Some countries, such as Bangladesh and India, have a major geographical disadvantage, but others, such as Indonesia, China and Taiwan, are contributing negatively to their own future security. This trend can be slowed and even reversed with government commitment to prevent man-made marine and coastal destruction.

The Cancun Protocol (COP 16) has made funds available for mitigation and disaster relief work, in other words government inactivity should not be excused because of lack of capital. For good projects, money is available, and this has a triple benefit in places such as Bali. Projects that preserve the coast or reefs can create quality employment and also help in portraying a positive international image, as well as actually saving areas from destruction. There are three main factors why risk in Indonesia has increased: reef destruction, mangrove depletion and population increase. The growth in global population has forced ever more people to live on the edge, thus exposing them to increasing dangers, and globally over 1 million people have died in the period covered as a result of storms or other catastrophes.

The reefs and mangroves are life-giving phenomena, they provide a rich source of food, beauty and promote diversity, but they also absorb the ocean’s power. In a tropical storm a reef can reduce the energy making landfall by up to 85 percent. You can compare southern Kuta beaches or Sanur to Canggu beaches at normal high tides for a graphic illustration. The Nature Conservancy Indonesia’s marine program director, Abdul Halim, responded to this report saying: “Southeast Asia, and in particular Indonesia, has by far the greatest number of people in low elevation areas and its reefs are the most threatened.

We must strive to inspire government and local stakeholders for higher engagement in marine conservation and sustainable use of resources.” There has been no official government response to date. With regard to future climate change, the index serves as a warning indicating past vulnerability, which will further increase in regions where extreme weather and disasters associated with that are becoming more frequent and severe. In simple terms, it is a legitimate tool for understanding our own risk and where we sit in relation to other nations. Our slipping by three places is largely down to our own destructive actions, and, as the climate continues to change, the very things that protect us become ever more ineffective. Indonesia has 35 million people who are classified as “at risk”, and in terms of an extreme event and the associated loss of life, it is no longer a case of IF, but a case of WHEN.

Chris O’Connor is a retired director currently exploring his creative and culinary interests.
source : bali daily